ABSTRACT
Objective To estimate and predict the characteristics and development trend of the AIDS epidemic situation in Wuhan by using Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum model. Methods Data from HIV/AIDS case reports, sentinel surveillance, special investigations, maternal screenings, detention places reports, antiviral treatments, and screenings of high-risk populations was collected, verified and sorted out. Estimation and projection package (EPP) and Spectrum models were used to fit and modify the curves. The final results were formed after consultation and discussion with experts. Results The EPP/Spectrum model predicted that the HIV infection rate of adults in Wuhan increased significantly after 2003, reached the peak around 2013, and then maintained a high level until 2019. The HIV infection rate of adults in 2019 was about 9.0/105, and the adult infection rate would show a downward trend after 2020. Among all kinds of populations, the infection rate of spouses/sexual partners of already infected people was the highest, with the infection rate in men who have sex with men (MSM) ranking second. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS increased gradually from 2000, and by 2022 the number is estimated to be around 8,000 (95% CI:5421-9754). In regards to gender and age, the main distribution of HIV infections was among young adults, especially men aged 25-50 years old. Conclusion Wuhan currently is a low prevalence area of AIDS. MSM will still be the focus of intervention in the following years.
ABSTRACT
Objective To evaluate the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Zhejiang Province through Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model and to provide scientific evidence for the control practice of AIDS. Methods Consecutive behavior surveillance data, HIV prevalence, the number of HIV/AIDS patients under highly active anti-retroviral therapy (HAART) and social-demographic data from population census in Zhejiang Province were collected and input into the optimized EPP-Spectrum model. HIV epidemic curves of different sub-population were generated for comprehensive estimation of HIV/AIDS prevalence, people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA), the number of new HIV infection and the death toll in Zhejiang Province. Results It was estimated that by the end of 2016, the HIV infection rate in the whole population was 0.05% (95%CI: 0.04%-0.06%) . There were a total of 27 542 (95%CI: 24 564-31 187) PLWHA in Zhejiang Province, with 47.55% of which by homosexual transmission, 24.43% by commercial heterosexual transmission and 25.29% by non-commercial heterosexual (including spouses) transmission. There were 1 714 (95%CI: 1 340-2 194) new infections in 2016 and this number fluctuated slightly from 2014 to 2016. Most of the new HIV/AIDS were infected by sexual transmission, with homosexual transmission accounted for 46.94%; the proportion of non-commercial sex transmission (including spouses) increased year by year. A total of 642 (95%CI: 476-896) PLWHA died in 2016, and the number of death increased slowly and remained stable each year. A total of The proportion of PLWHA being diagnosed and under HAART increased during 2012-2016. It was estimated that 57.70% of PLWHA had been controlled. Conclusion The HIV/AIDS epidemic in Zhejiang Province from 1995 to 2016 increased steadily and was at low prevalence. The main transmission routes were homosexual behaviors, commercialand non-commercial heterosexual behaviors.